The Dollar is up…is that a good thing?

This week the dollar’s exchange rate versus the Kazakh tenge has gone up. I was walking down the street on Monday and noticed the exchange rate was 128 tenge to $1. The usual rate this summer was around 123-124. Not much differenc but still significant.

Well, the next morning it was 130 to 1. I stopped and exchanged some money and asked the young lady working why the sudden drop in the tenge. She explained to me that there was a shortage of US dollars in the city, and thus the rate increasing.

Later in the day, I was speaking to one of my Russian friends and he told me that it was due to the housing market here. He believes that banks have over extended in giving out loans for new apartments and thus they don’t have any money to give out for new loans. He even shared with me that it wasn’t good for him at all and he explained to me why.

Well, why that is good for me, it is not so good for the locals. Also, I fear that if the rate continues to go up, so will prices. I don’t have enough experience here in Kazakhstan, but in Ukraine, whenever the dollar went up, prices went up. This means my buying power may improve slightly, for the nationals it means they have even less money since their pay will probably not increase due to this exchange rate.

I am not an economist and I don’t understand all the particulars. However, I do know when I am having to spend more.

Will the trend continue? Right now, it is a wait and see game.